- Type 31 affordability under ongoing review
- Construction timetable faces delivery risks
- Support and upgrade cuts loom over cancellation
The UK’s Type 31 frigate programme, intended to deliver five relatively inexpensive surface combatants to the Royal Navy, remains under assessment by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) amid ongoing programmatic inflationary pressures across labour and supply chains.
Detailed in a series of UK parliamentary written responses published on 21 October, the UK Defence Readiness Minister Luke Pollard outlined the current status of the Type 31 programme, including its overall affordability.
“The affordability of the Type 31 programme remains under review, and any changes to its budget or approvals will be considered through the Department’s established governance processes,” Pollard stated.
Continuing, Pollard said the programme was “experiencing inflationary pressures across a number of areas” including supply chains and labour, with work to assess the impact of inflation and other cost pressures for the Type 31 build described as “ongoing”.
As it stands, three of the planned five ships of the class are in various stages of build, with first-in-class HMS Venturer undergoing outfitting ahead of sea trials.
- HMS Venturer: Steel cut in September 2021, keel laid in 2022, rolled out of the Rosyth assembly hall in May 2025, and floated for systems testing
- HMS Active: Steel cut and keel laid in January 2023 and rolled out of the assembly hall in February 2026 for outfitting
- HMS Formidable: Steel cut in 2024 and keel laid in 2025, taking up space in the Rosyth build hall as work progresses
- HMS Bulldog: Steel cut in February 2026
- HMS Campbeltown: Awaiting start of manufacture
All five Type 31 frigates were included in the original £1.25bn ($1.6bn) contract – subsequently renegotiated following profit warnings and a dispute resolution process.
Based on the previous build cadence, first steel for Ship 5 could be cut around August 2027. However, this could come sooner or later depending on hall availability, workforce capacity, or renegotiated contract milestones.
Cost cutting underway for Type 31?
Given that the MoD in 2026 abandoned its planned Type 31 Through Life Support (TLS) procurement competition, which would deliver an eight-year support programme for the class, it is uncertain under what process the frigates would be maintained, other than ad-hoc, once delivered.
It is notable that this decision came prior to the delivery of the UK’s Autumn Budget, in which it is thought the MoD might have to make further cuts in order to balance its inflation-impacted books.
While it is unlikely that Ship 5 will be cut or cancelled, given the contract already provides for five frigates, the MoD could be forced to delay acceptance or entry into service via an arbitrary phase delay, given the uncertainty over fleet support.
In doing so, the service would not have to pay for the fuel and other day-to-day costs needed to maintain a warship active and afloat.
Even before this stage, the admission that the programme was experiencing “inflationary pressures” could require the MoD to seek to move cost to the right where possible, usually performed – where unit cancellation is not an option – via construction and sub-system delivery delays.
Alternatively, fiscal pressures could mean that future Capability Insertion Periods, such as the installation of the Mk41 vertical launch system, will no longer go ahead for Ship 5, leaving a single sub-class of Type 31 at risk of cannibalisation.
The ministerial responses do not indicate that the MoD plans to reduce the Type 31 order below five ships. They do, however, confirm that affordability remains under review as inflation raises labour and supply-chain costs.
The immediate question for the Autumn Budget is therefore less whether HMS Campbeltown will be cancelled than whether the MoD will need to defer expenditure, adjust build and acceptance milestones, or delay upgrades to keep the programme within its approved funding envelope.
