Branded the “largest arms deal in history”, the announced $142bn deal between the US and Saudi Arabia represents a political 180-degree from the previous US administration that sought to isolate Riyadh on human rights grounds, to a Trump-led White House that espouses a distinct business-first approach
President Donald Trump was never going to seek a quiet start to his globe-hopping trade show, beginning in Saudi Arabia with a defence announcement intended to firmly return Saudi Arabia back within the US fold through the best means it has available – trade and weapons.
In a 13 May communique, the White House stated that the near $142bn agreement, calling it the “largest defence sales agreement in history”, would provide Saudi Arabia with “state-of-the-art warfighting equipment and services” from over a dozen US defence companies.
According to the White House, the agreement will fall into five categories: air force advancement and space capabilities, air and missile defence, maritime and coastal security, border security and land forces modernisation, and information and communication systems upgrades.
US-Saudi deal: what is included?
Riyadh clearly has funding available. GlobalData’s 2024 country report into Saudi Arabia’s military spending pointed to an 8.8% increase in its defence budget from 2023, valued then at $66.1bn and forecast to grow to beyond $71.bn in 2024.
Depending on exact numbers, Saudi Arabia ranks around fifth in the world in terms of defence budget, as a proportion of GDP.
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By GlobalDataSpecifics were light from the White House release, which declined to mention individual land, maritime, and air domain platforms included in the deal, nor name the US companies that stand to benefit.
However, analysis conducted by GlobalData point to air and missile defence for the land domain, itself a hugely significant global market, through existing programmes such as the THAAD provision, but also future capabilities, with Lockheed Martin set to benefit.
In the maritime domain, the US is already supplying Saudi Arabia with four Multi Mission Surface Combatants based on the Freedom-variant Littoral Combat Ship, with GlobalData pointing to possible US-Saudi joint venture in shipbuilding as a future possibility. This would make sense, with the US desperate to secure additional shipbuilding capacity, either at home or overseas.
A recent FY2027 budget proposal from the White House called for an additional two Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and one more Virginia-class nuclear powered attack submarine to be built that year, indicative of initial steps to increase US naval power.
In the air, Saudi acquisition of rotary capabilities such as the UH-60M and CH-47F Chinook are ongoing, but there is potential for the advanced F-15EX multirole fighter, or even the F-35 stealth fighter, to be part of future discussions. As current operators of the F-15SA model, an upgrade to the EX-variant would be easily accommodated by the Royal Saudi Air Force.
Other capabilities could include surveillance satellites and greater partnerships with US programmes, potentially beneficial to companies such as Raytheon and Northrop Grumman, and the development of in-country logistics and support facilities for new platforms.
US-Saudi deal: the politics
Most critically for Saudi Arabia will be to maximise the proportion of current and future US defence deals able to be completed inside the country, as it seeks to produce 50% of its military requirements domestically by 2030 through organisations such as SAMI (Saudi Arabian Military Industries).
For the US, it appears to be a return to the deal-orientated strategy that underpinned President Trump’s first term in office, who in 2017 signed a series of Letters of Intent with Saudi Arabia for the provision of a swath of military equipment, much of which is posited to be included in the ‘new’ announcement.
As holders of the world’s largest economy and defence budget, and operators of, arguably, the most advanced military, the US is playing its strongest hand in a new era of global politics, one where soft power has had its day, and now given way.
