- UK defence relies on RAF Mount Pleasant and a small tri-service garrison
- Argentina is upgrading forces across the domains, increasing the long-term threat
- UK cuts—especially Navy/Army—could weaken reinforcement or recovery options
Renewed attention has been placed on the small UK overseas territory of the Falkland Islands, after US President Donald Trump appears to move toward favouring Argentina’s claim over the islands amid a growing crisis between Washington and London.
Located in the South Atlantic, the UK has maintained control over the Falkland Islands since 1833, and over which a war was fought against Argentina in 1982.
Access deeper industry intelligence
Experience unmatched clarity with a single platform that combines unique data, AI, and human expertise.
The UK also holds sovereignty over South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, located some 1,500km further east of the Falkland Islands.
Following the 1982 Falklands War between the UK and Argentina, the UK moved to reinforce its ability to defend the Falkland Islands through the creation of a tri-service defence capability.
Central to this is RAF Mount Pleasant, an airbase constructed south of the capital city of Stanley on East Falkland.
British Army and Royal Navy assets are also assigned to the territory, with units rotating in and out as required. There are around 1,500 UK military personnel stationed on the Falkland Islands at any one time.
Previous analysis conducted by Army Technology explored the UK military capabilities stationed at the Falklands, which includes a small fighter-jet detachment, ground-based air defence systems, and a dedicated patrol ship.
However, in the two years since this analysis was carried out, the UK military has suffered huge cuts to capability, particularly in the naval domain, but also on land and in its rotary-wing fleets.
The question, now, is the current state of Argentina’s forces, and could the UK mount a defence and possible recovery of the Falkland Islands in the event of an attack?
Argentina’s military renewal
For decades, the threat of military action from Argentina has not been thought to be particularly likely, due to the country’s historically troubled economy and an even worse military, which has been starved of funding.
However, while Argentina insists it has no ambitions to acquire the Falkland Islands through military means, preferring to leverage support in the United Nations and Washington, it is beginning to recapitalise key elements of its defence capabilities that could, theoretically, threaten the UK overseas territory.
Denmark’s plan to sell 24 of its F-16A/B fighters will provide Argentina with capable fourth-generation fighter aircraft, able to conduct a wide range of missions. The deal is also being supported by the United States, with the US State Department publicly stating its “steadfast support” of Argentina’s air force modernisation efforts in 2023.
Argentina has also signed an agreement with the United States to acquire 235 Stryker 8×8 armoured fighting vehicles for the Argentine Army.
Negotiations are also ongoing for the purchase of three modern Scorpene diesel-electric attack submarines from France, while aspirations remain for key enablers like amphibious assault ships and surface combatants.
Funding has also increased in recent years, with business intelligence firm GlobalData forecasting an annual defence spend of $1.9bn by 2029.
While this is dwarfed by the UK’s defence spending, it should be noted that Buenos Aires could dedicate the majority of its military resources towards a Falkland Islands effort, while London is constrained by other national and Nato commitments, as well as vast amounts of fiscal waste.
The state of the UK military
Despite spending more money than ever before on the UK military, consecutive administrations in London have overseen the drawdown of forces, with dozens of warships cut, a British Army told it has no money for training, and a Royal Air Force struggling with availability and platform readiness.
All three services have seen reductions in personnel numbers.
Indeed, recent revelations that the British Army has been told to stop exercises for several months in order to save money comes as little surprise and were hinted at being a possibility earlier this year in a House of Lords defence committee session with Chief of the Defence Staff, Air Marshal Richard Knighton.
Speaking prior to the publication of the disastrous Defence Investment Plan (DIP), Knighton said that a reduced financial settlement to UK defence spending could require the UK Armed Forces to make savings at an operational level.
“The thing I am most concerned about is RDEL [funding], our day-to-day operational [requirements]. Without changes to the settlement… then those areas will come under pressure,” Knighton said at the time.
The Royal Navy currently has no nuclear attack submarines at sea, with some boats having been alongside for months waiting for an available slot for maintenance, while the surface fleet now has, at best, five functioning frigates.
The service also recently lost its amphibious assault ships, cut in the DIP, leaving the UK military no viable way to launch a recovery of the Falkland Islands in the event of an Argentinian takeover.
The British Army is virtually combat-incapable, with recapitalisation programmes for main battle tanks, artillery, and other armour still years away from delivery. Much of its infantry equipment is decades old, and urgently in need of replacement.
The saving grace could be the Royal Air Force, which retains the ability to project force at distance thanks to its Typhoon multirole fighter fleet. Any successful UK defence of the Falkland Islands would depend on being able to reinforce RAF Mount Pleasant.
Given Argentina’s focus on pursuing diplomatic routes to pressure the UK and the Falkland Islanders into surrendering sovereignty, it is unlikely that military action would be an option in the near term.
However, should the silent destruction of the UK’s military capability continue, and coupled with a renewal of Argentinian forces, as well as securing potential partners in South, Central, and North America, the UK could find itself outmatched.
The impending commencement of oil drilling in the waters off the Islands, thus offering an economic reason for Buenos Aires to accompany its political claims, could expediate this timeline, which could find the UK wanting, given most of the UK military’s renewal would only be delivered and mature post-2030.
With the Trump administration due to leave office in January 2029, there exists a short window that could be exploited by Argentina, either doubling down on its close ties with the US, or perhaps through a combined South American effort conducted with the White House’s blessing.
The prospect of oil riches at the end of the Falkland Islands’ rainbow could well be the deciding factor.
